敦刻尔克

B |     JERUSALEM -- Deadly violence has been surging in the West Bank as the Israeli military pursues Palestinian militants in the aftermath of the Hamas attack from Gaza, with at least 90 Palestinians killed in the Israeli-occupied territory in the past two weeks, mainly in clashes with Israeli troops.The violence threatens to open another front in the 2-week-old war, and puts pressure on the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank and is deeply unpopular among Palestinians, in large part because it cooperates with Israel on security matters. The tally includes five Palestinians killed in separate incidents on Sunday, including two who died in an airstrike on a mosque in the volatile Jenin refugee camp that Israel said was being used by militants. Israel carried out an airstrike during a battle in another West Bank refugee camp last week, in which 13 Palestinians, including five minors, and a member of Israel's paramilitary Border Police were killed. Israel rarely uses air power in the occupied West Bank, even as it has bombarded Hamas-ruled Gaza since the militant group stormed across the border on Oct. 7. More than 1,400 people have been killed in Israel since the war began, mostly civilians killed in the initial Hamas assault. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza says over 4,300 Palestinians have been killed. The Palestinian Health Ministry in the West Bank says 90 Palestinians have been killed there since Oct. 7, a dramatic jump from 197, according to an Associated Press count, from the start of the year until the Hamas attack. In addition to the raids, Palestinians have been killed in violent anti-Israel protests and in some instances in attacks by Jewish settlers.Israel clamped down on the territory immediately after the Hamas assault, closing crossings and checkpoints between Palestinian towns. Israel says its forces have detained over 700 suspects in the West Bank, including 480 members of Hamas, since the start of hostilities.Israel’s resumption of aerial attacks — which in a July operation in Jenin reached a level of intensity not seen since the Palestinian uprising against Israel two decades ago — suggests a shift in military tactics.The military described the Al-Ansar Mosque in Jenin as a militant compound belonging to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a smaller and more radical Palestinian militant group. It said the militants had carried out several attacks in recent months and were planning another imminent assault.The intensified violence follows more than a year of escalating raids and arrests in the West Bank and deadly Palestinian attacks on Israelis.Israel captured the West Bank, along with Gaza and east Jerusalem, in the 1967 war. The Palestinians want all three territories for a future state. Over 500,000 Israelis live in settlements across the West Bank that most of the international community considers illegal, while the territory's more than 2.5 million Palestinians live under Israeli military rule.The Palestinians view the settlements as the greatest obstacle to resolving the conflict with Israel. The last serious and substantive peace talks broke down over a decade ago. Settler violence against Palestinians has also intensified since the Hamas attack. At least five Palestinians have been killed by settlers, according to Palestinian authorities, and rights groups say settlers have torched cars and attacked several small Bedouin communities, forcing them to evacuate to other areas.The West Bank Protection Consortium, a coalition of non-governmental organizations and donor countries, including the European Union, says at least 470 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced in the West Bank due to settler violence since Oct. 7. That's in addition to over 1,100 displaced since 2022. ___Associated Press writer Joseph Krauss contributed to this report.。那么，日本政府要想扩大军费、增加民生支出，该如何获取资金？是否能持续进行，将有哪些风险？

C | 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府这一套操作的本质有饮鸩止渴色彩，长期看风险很大。第一，目前高市采取的替代性裁员设想都有画饼嫌疑。据测算，相关措施只能提供一两万亿日元左右的空间，和高达10万亿的支出相比是杯水车薪。而且日本目前的经济发展前景并不明朗，高市能不能依靠经济增长来增加收入，也要画上一个问号。

D | 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第二，可能进一步加剧日本的金融风险。

E | 日本目前债务余额占GDP的比重已经非常高，进一步减税和增加支出将严重影响日本政府还债能力，加剧日元的贬值压力。

F | 日元持续走弱会有推高物价、通胀等负面影响，加重日本经济出现系统性金融风险。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第三，涉及日本民生的裁员压力。消费税是日本的年金、医疗和介护等重要的稳定财源，缺口如不能妥善填补，可能影响相关服务的可持续性。食品消费税减税两年期满，自民党为了保住政权，很可能不敢再提增税，两年可能就会变成永久减收。由此社会保障最稳定的一块税基就被挖空了，进一步恶化日本民众的生活环境。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市政府现在最在意的不是长期风险，而是接下来2027年9月前后的自民党总裁选和2028年夏季的参院选。近期多份民调显示，高市内阁的支持率明显下滑，所以她迫切需要通过减税来拉回中间选民，通过扩军支出取悦国内的右翼保守势力这一基本盘，稳住支持率，渡过总裁选和参议院选，把首相的板凳坐稳，把风险留给日本的未来。

G | 倘若风险快要爆雷，那么顺滑下台走人也不失是一个办法。这进一步暴露以高市为首的日本右翼势力执迷于整军扩武、推动新军国主义，为满足政治私利，不惜损害日本民生和未来的真实面目。